Replication Data for: Expert assessments of maritime shipping decarbonization pathways by 2030 and 2050

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Laskar, Imranul; Hadi Dowlatabadi; Amanda Giang, 2024, "Replication Data for: Expert assessments of maritime shipping decarbonization pathways by 2030 and 2050", https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/UPTYSU, Borealis, V1
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International shipping conveys over 80% of global trade by volume and emits an estimated 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There are many potential pathways and barriers to decarbonizing the diverse and fragmented international shipping sector, with numerous uncertainties. Here, we employ expert elicitation, gathering perspectives from 149 world-leading experts in maritime shipping and decarbonization, to characterize uncertainties in shipping decarbonization pathways. These experts predict a 30-40% (25th – 75th percentile range) carbon intensity reduction by 2030 compared to 2008, meeting the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) target. By 2050, they anticipate an approximate 40-75% cut in GHG emissions, falling short of the IMO’s 2050 net-zero GHG goal and thereby not aligning with a 1.5°C warming scenario. Responding experts see decarbonization occurring through three types of measures: operational, technological, and alternative energy sources. In the short-term, decarbonization is predicted to be dominated by operational measures, while in the long-term, it will be dominated by alternative energy, although there is no consensus on which fuels will dominate. Technological upgrades are expected to play crucial supporting roles. The experts believe that differences in business models and governance may lead to different decarbonization pathways by ship segment. The experts’ qualitative responses highlights: alternative energy systems, ship fleet turnover, spillover effects from land-based sectors, mitigation of industry pessimism, and the supply chain as critical leverage points that can propel shipping towards sustainable decarbonization pathways. Navigating this transition demands support from key levers identified in this study: politics and policy, maritime governance, and contractual architecture. (2024-08-28)
Subject Earth and Environmental Sciences; Social Sciences; Other
Keyword expert elicitation, maritime shipping, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, alternative energy
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Readme.txt
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Published Sep 3, 2024
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This is a README file for the dataset "Expert assessments of maritime shipping decarbonization pathways by 2030 and 2050".
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Dataset S1_Laskar et al..csv
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Published Sep 3, 2024
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This file contains survey data exported from Qualtrics Experience Management, a web-based software tool, for all the expert respondents in this study.
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